AGP Executive Report

West Bank Security Overhaul: Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the IDF to draft a plan within two weeks to transfer civilian enforcement for Israeli communities in the West Bank to the Israel Police, aiming to keep soldiers focused on border defense and Palestinian terrorism. Gaza/West Bank Humanitarian Pressure: UN and rights groups report escalating settler violence and ongoing sieges and demolitions, including families trapped without basic services in Qusra. Iran-US Deal Fallout: The 60-day US-Iran memorandum of understanding window has expired, with Tehran calling the deadline “irrelevant” amid renewed hostilities and Washington pushing economic isolation alongside Hormuz pressure. Iran Economic Strain: Reports describe Iranians in “survival mode” as food prices surge and unemployment rises, while Iran’s parliament advances a bill criminalising interviews with US and Israeli media. Iran Payment/Market Controls: Saman Bank won a licence to provide online gold and silver treasury services for real-time trading platforms, signalling tighter oversight of Iran’s fast-growing precious-metals market. Gulf Tech & Investment: Dubai Silicon Oasis expanded with new infrastructure projects and its Oraseya arm invested in 15 startups in H1 2026, including AI and GCC e-commerce plays. Fintech/Capital Markets Moves: American Fusion appointed digital-assets executive Samson Lee as an independent director; NewGenIVF completed a convertible note exchange with an institutional investor. Logistics & Trade Risk: A forum in Riyadh (late Nov) will spotlight supply-chain innovation as Hormuz and regional tensions keep shipping costs elevated.

Sanctions & Compliance: Nigeria’s SEC ordered capital market operators to cut ties with institutions linked to North Korea and to reject transactions involving Iranian financial institutions, citing FATF guidance. Iran Media Crackdown: Iran’s parliament approved general principles of a bill that would criminalise interviews and communications with “hostile” media, including US and Israeli outlets, with prison terms and fines. Markets & Risk Appetite: Investors in the region stayed cautious as Middle East risks and inflation weighed on sentiment, while Wall Street traded softer after weaker US retail sales. Egypt FDI Pulse: CAPMAS said Arab countries were a top source of Egypt’s Q2 2025/26 FDI inflows, contributing about $1.7bn, as total net FDI jumped to roughly $6.8bn. Banking Signals: Cyprus banks’ profitability outlook remains positive into 2027, but windfall-tax pressure could return as politics get more fragmented. Consumer Tech Demand: Omdia reported Middle East smartphone shipments (ex-Turkey) fell 19% y/y in Q2 2026, hit by higher prices, supply constraints and uncertainty. Geopolitics & Energy: Oil edged higher as Israel-Iran tensions and potential new US sanctions on Iran kept traders focused on Hormuz-related supply risk.

Crypto & Regulation: The SEC ordered capital market operators to terminate correspondent banking ties and restrict dealings tied to Iran and North Korea, citing FATF risk updates. Cybersecurity: Israel’s regulated crypto broker Bits of Gold says a hacker stole personal data of about 200,000 customers, raising fresh KYC and privacy concerns. Banking & Payments: Trump-linked crypto venture World Liberty Trust received bank status approval, a major step for crypto-to-banking ambitions. Anti-Corruption (Iraq): Iraq seized $26m in cash and 60kg of gold in a corruption sweep tied to the former deputy oil minister for refining affairs. Iran Media Crackdown: Iran’s parliament approved a bill to criminalise interviews and communications with “hostile” media, with prison terms and tighter controls on foreign contacts. Aviation (Iran war impact): IATA estimates Middle East airlines’ 2026 swing to a $4.3bn net loss as the Iran conflict disrupts demand and routes. Youth Jobs (Arab states): Phenix Center warns Arab youth unemployment hit 26.2% in 2025, the highest globally, with 2.6m jobless youth rising further. Egypt FinTech/Tech Ecosystem: Egypt is pushing AI and digital infrastructure to attract startups, while Egypt-Libya chambers sealed plans for an industrial integration exhibition in April 2027. West Bank Flashpoint (risk to stability): Pope Leo XIV renewed calls to end violence in the West Bank as Qusra families report sieges cutting water and electricity.

Digital Banking & Crypto: Bank Leumi will launch Israel’s first bank-backed crypto trading for BTC, ETH and SOL via Galaxy Digital, starting early 2027, after the Bank of Israel removed some deposit frictions in mid-July. Banking Regulation: A Trump-appointed US regulator granted World Liberty Trust conditional approval to establish a bank charter and issue a dollar-linked stablecoin, a first for a president’s family-owned firm. Egypt Macro & Markets: The IMF expects Egypt’s net FDI inflows to climb to about $18.2bn by FY2030/31, while saying exchange-rate flexibility helped absorb recent external shocks; Morgan Stanley also renewed a view that foreign investors can buy Egyptian T-bills without hedging. Egypt Policy & FinTech Adjacent: Egypt’s NTRA says demand for its free “Safety SIM” for children is strong, with filtered browsing via mobile networks. Egypt Debt & Privatization: IMF documents say Egypt targets $4.7bn in divestment proceeds for debt reduction, with an emphasis on real private-sector participation. Kuwait Investment: Kuwait’s Shaheen Project (KPC/KOC with Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR) is set to be a major FDI milestone, with $7.85bn upfront proceeds. Regional Energy Finance: Saudi SPPC extended RFQ deadlines for Round 3 conventional IPPs (CCGT), with BOO structures and future carbon capture readiness. Crypto Compliance (Africa): Nigeria’s SEC ordered capital market firms to suspend dealings tied to North Korea, Iran and Myanmar under FATF-aligned rules. Geopolitics Impacting Finance: Iran says Hormuz will remain under its control and warns of continued blockade effects as Trump pushes economic pressure; oil and FX risks remain a key driver for regional investment sentiment.

West Bank Flashpoint: Qatar condemned escalating Israeli settler attacks, saying civilians are being targeted under army protection and urging accountability, as Israel weighs shifting West Bank “order” powers from the IDF to police. EU Data & Policing: A report says the European Commission is negotiating a secret deal to share sensitive biometric and location data with Israel’s police, raising alarms about misuse against Palestinians. Hormuz & Oil Markets: Iran rejected Trump’s claim it will declare the Strait of Hormuz “U.S. territory,” insisting the strait remains Iranian and warning shipping will resume only on Tehran’s terms, while fuel-price pressure continues. UAE-Iran Funds Claim: Reuters-sourced reporting said the UAE agreed to transfer $10–20bn to Tehran for de-escalation, but Abu Dhabi denied it. Iraq Trade Tech: Iraq’s customs collected 2.5tn IQD in seven months, driven by automation and anti-corruption upgrades. Kuwait Investment Deal: Kuwait Petroleum signed a $16bn sale-and-leaseback for crude oil pipelines to monetize assets and attract global investors. Egypt Silver Spike: Egypt’s silver imports surged 5,306% in H1 2026 to about $446m, with most of the jump in Q1. Syria-Turkey Trade: Syria’s ports and customs met Turkey on free-zone development and port operations to boost investment and bilateral trade. Philippines Consumer Caution: Filipino households are cutting back spending as financial pressure rises amid the Middle East conflict. Fintech/Finance Signals: Israel’s Bank Leumi is set to expand digital-asset trading via Galaxy, while market coverage also highlights rising gold interest tied to Fed-rate uncertainty and Hormuz risk.

Crypto Banking: Israel’s largest bank Bank Leumi will offer crypto trading (BTC, ETH, SOL) via its Leumi Trade app starting early 2027, partnering with Galaxy Digital for execution and custody—another push to bring digital assets into regulated banking apps. Sanctions & Markets: The US escalated its Iran pressure campaign, with Trump saying the Strait of Hormuz could be declared “US territory” and Treasury promising “never seen” economic isolation measures next week; shipping through Hormuz slowed after more attacks, keeping oil prices supported and investors cautious. BRICS Finance: Iran’s central bank governor says Iran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, while Iran and Russia discussed expanding banking, investment, payment mechanisms and the use of digital assets/crypto for cross-border deals. West Bank Humanitarian Crunch: UN OCHA says 900+ physical obstacles are blocking aid access in the occupied West Bank, with families in Qusra trapped as deliveries fail amid settler sieges and restrictions. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt and Pakistan foreign ministers discussed de-escalation and expanding political, economic, trade and investment cooperation.

BRICS & Payments: Iran’s central bank governor Abdolnasser Hemmati says Tehran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, alongside talks on linking payment systems and digital currencies to speed cross-border transfers and cut costs. Sanctions & Energy Shock: US Treasury chief Scott Bessent warns of “economic isolation” measures “never seen before” against Iran next week, paired with an “indefinite” Strait of Hormuz naval blockade; markets react as oil firms and investors weigh supply disruption risk. Oil Prices & Inflation Spillover: A US war-with-Iran energy shock is feeding into household budgets, with petrol and broader energy costs still elevated versus earlier expectations. West Bank Siege Fallout: France demands Israel arrest and prosecute settlers harassing families in Qusra, where activists were blocked from reaching besieged homes and residents report cut water and electricity. Security Governance Shift: Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz orders IDF planning to transfer civilian law-enforcement responsibility for Israeli settlers in the West Bank to the Israel Police, while keeping IDF support in Areas A/B. FinTech/Investing: Cobi raises $1M pre-seed for an AI decision stack to unify fragmented customer signals across MENA; Bank Leumi partners with Galaxy to bring digital-asset trading into Israeli banking apps. Banking Results: Malaysia’s Affin Bank reports Q2 profit down 11.1% as impairment allowances rise, though revenue grows. Crypto Token Delay: World Liberty Financial delays a Maldives resort token sale amid the Iran war’s impact on travel and deal timing.

BRICS & Payments: Iran’s central bank governor says Tehran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, alongside talks on linking payment systems and digital currencies to speed cross-border transfers. RMB Access in Europe: Deutsche Bank becomes the first European RMB clearing bank in Frankfurt, a move analysts say could deepen China’s reach into European and US financial plumbing. US-Iran Energy Pressure: The US says it could keep an “indefinite” naval blockade of Iran as Strait of Hormuz traffic drops and oil supply risks rise, with UAE reporting attacks on Abu Dhabi National Oil Company vessels. Turkey Inflation Credibility: Turkey’s central bank lifts its end-2026 official inflation forecast to 28%, while warning data reliability remains a concern. Israel-West Bank Fallout: US condemns settler sieges in Qusra as “terror,” as Israel moves troops and orders evictions—raising political and economic risk for the region. AI Deal Watch: Anthropic is reportedly in talks to buy Israeli AI startup Decart for up to $6B. Energy Projects: Egypt plans to add two reactors at El-Dabaa with Rosatom, while wind farm plans (NIAT & Rasgha) target 500MW capacity. Football Finance Politics: Six Arab federations back FIFA chief Infantino amid revolt over his World Cup private-investment plan.

BRICS & Payments: Iran’s central bank governor says Tehran will soon join the BRICS New Development Bank, with BRICS finance chiefs also discussing payment-system links and digital currencies to speed cross-border transfers. Embedded Finance in Saudi: SILQ (ShopUp’s parent) secured $100m to expand Fina’s embedded working-capital financing for Saudi merchants, aiming to plug loans directly into merchant digital workflows. Turkey Inflation Outlook: Türkiye’s central bank lifted its end-2026 inflation forecast to 28% while keeping a tight policy stance, citing volatile geopolitics and energy/food pressures. Jordan–China Investment Push: Jordan’s investment minister says China is a strategic partner for scaling industrial cooperation and investment across priority sectors like electronics, renewables, logistics and mobility. AI Deal Watch: Anthropic is in advanced talks to buy Israeli AI infrastructure startup Decart for about $6bn, potentially boosting Claude’s performance and compute efficiency. West Bank Flashpoint (Fintech-adjacent risk): US ambassador Mike Huckabee called the Qusra settler siege “terror,” as families report cutoffs and prolonged harassment—another reminder of instability risk affecting regional commerce and travel. Oil & Markets Backdrop: Reuters weighs whether global oil stocks can absorb a prolonged US-Iran conflict-driven supply disruption, keeping energy volatility front and center for regional economies.

Middle East Energy & Trade Corridors: Lebanon and Iraq are discussing reviving the Kirkuk-Tripoli oil pipeline, aiming to turn Lebanon into an initial storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products, with upgrades planned for borders, roads and storage standards. Iran–US Deadlock & Oil Markets: Iran says there’s been “absolutely no progress” on extending its ceasefire with the US, while oil prices stay supported by shipping attacks and Strait of Hormuz disruption fears despite softer demand outlooks. Central Banking & Payments: Iran’s central bank chief met India’s RBI governor to explore closer banking ties as Iran moves to join the BRICS New Development Bank and reduce dollar reliance. Fintech/Investing: Israeli VC Team8 raised $365m to back AI-native startups, including fintech and cybersecurity, as enterprise adoption accelerates. Banking Results: Kenya’s Co-op Bank posted a 28% jump in half-year net profit to Sh18bn, driven by subsidiary revenue growth and an improving loan book. Regional Power Links: Turkey is pursuing a new electricity corridor connecting Saudi Arabia to Turkey via Jordan and Syria, with potential expansion toward Lebanon. Crypto Sanctions: The US sanctioned a Georgia-based cryptocurrency company over alleged links to the IRGC. West Bank Pressure on Services: WHO says attacks on healthcare in the West Bank surged, while hospitals face severe financial shortages and restrictions that are pushing care toward collapse.

UAE–China Finance: Rakbank CEO Raheel Ahmed says deeper UAE–China financial connectivity is being driven by RMB use, digital payments and cross-border trade finance, with “digital finance” and capital-market links set to be key pillars. Hormuz & Oil Markets: The IEA warns oil stockpiles are “rapidly depleting” as Strait of Hormuz reopening remains elusive, while Brent and WTI rise amid attacks on shipping and US–Iran talks stalling. Shipping Costs: Panama Canal transit fees and queues are spiking, with one reported $4m payment to skip the line—another sign of Middle East conflict pressure hitting global trade. West Bank Risk: UN officials warn the occupied West Bank is at a “breaking point” as settler violence, settlement expansion and military operations accelerate, raising forced-displacement fears. Regional Diplomacy: GCC Secretary-General AlBudaiwi met Egypt’s FM Abdelatty and discussed strengthening ties and continuing the GCC–Egypt investment forum. Energy Infrastructure: Lebanon and Iraq met in Beirut to revive the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline as a storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude, aiming to attract investment and diversify export routes away from Hormuz. Fintech/Payments in Bahrain: stc pay is replacing OTPs with “Secure Approve” for online card payments, a move aimed at smoother, safer transactions. AI Data Highways: Gulf tech players are investing heavily in alternative fiber routes as Red Sea subsea cable plans face delays, with Qatar’s Ooredoo pushing its FIG cable to connect Asia to Europe via Oman–Iraq–Turkey.

Energy & Trade Corridors: Lebanon and Iraq met in Beirut to revive the Kirkuk–Tripoli oil pipeline, positioning Lebanon as a storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude as Baghdad seeks alternatives to Strait of Hormuz risk. Geopolitics to Markets: Iran reiterated Hormuz will stay closed until US conditions are met, while US demands for compensation keep deal hopes fragile—oil stays near $90 and equities wobble ahead of US CPI. Payments & Finance Diplomacy: Iran’s central bank governor says Iran is set to join the BRICS New Development Bank, with a push for trade using national currencies and expanded banking/digital-economy cooperation. Banking & Consumer Credit: UBA and Mikano Motors launched an auto financing scheme in Nigeria with a 30% down payment and 36-month repayments. Fintech/Capital Markets: Coinbase won a financial services provider licence to build a tokenization hub in Abu Dhabi; Deutsche Bank secured Europe’s first non-Chinese yuan clearing role. Renewables Finance: EDF-led consortium reached financial close on Oman’s 120MW Jaalan Bani Bu Ali wind project after a 20-year PPA. Corporate Results: IHG reported strong first-half performance despite Middle East pressure; Air Canada announced a $2.5bn minority investment in Aeroplan. Saudi AI Grants: Saudi Arabia launched AI incentives for cultural projects, offering non-repayable grants up to SR500,000. West Bank Risk to Business: UN and Israeli officials escalated warnings on settlement expansion and violence—raising operational and compliance risk for regional investors.

Strait of Hormuz Standoff: Iran says it won’t reopen the waterway without US concessions, while Trump escalates by demanding reparations/compensation from Tehran—pushing oil higher and keeping markets nervous. Markets & FX: Oil strength lifts inflation fears; US index futures stay muted as investors wait for key inflation prints, while the Indian rupee slips near a two-week low on the oil shock. Gulf Shipping Costs: Maersk raises its Emergency Contingency Surcharge by $500 per container on Middle East–Africa routes, with higher reefer and corridor-specific rates from Aug. 15. Cyber & Critical Infrastructure: Reports say suspected Iranian-linked hackers targeted US water utilities, spotlighting weak cybersecurity at small municipal systems. Israel-Palestine Risk: New reports and incidents in the West Bank and Lebanon add geopolitical strain that can spill into regional risk pricing. Fintech/Banking Signals: Money20/20 Middle East returns to Riyadh, while Emirates NBD taps a Dubai Future District fund for AI/fintech push. Oman Energy Finance: EDF-led consortium reaches financial close on a 120MW Oman wind project, supporting the country’s renewable targets.

Hormuz & Oil Shock: Trump escalated the Iran standoff by demanding “compensation” and claiming the US Navy has “100% control” of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran says reopening depends on US concessions—pushing Brent and WTI up ~5% and reviving inflation worries. Sanctions Push: The US House advanced a sweeping Russia and Iran sanctions bill after a Senate landslide, extending Iran sanctions through 2031 and targeting evasion networks. Banking/Capital Markets: Zain Group reported a 73% YoY jump in H1 2026 net profit to $717m on investment gains, while MTN shares slid after a dip—raising questions on growth momentum. Digital Finance/Regulation: Lebanon and the World Bank signed a $150m loan to support digital transformation, and Saudi instant transfers hit SR7tn in 30 days (+26%). Crypto & Compliance: Dubai’s regulator is investigating Shelbit over $4bn in crypto transactions linked to Iran. Infrastructure & Deals: Brookfield/KKR/Blackstone struck a $16bn deal for a Kuwait pipeline stake; Egypt and Libya advanced a ~$1bn oil pipeline project. West Bank Land Seizures: Israel ordered seizure of 550 acres near Marda and other sites for military communications facilities, adding to regional risk. AI Safety: An Israeli startup tied to AI “rogue” incidents is at the center of a growing AI security debate.

Crypto & Sanctions: Dubai regulator is investigating Shelbit, an unlicensed crypto exchange, over more than $4bn in transactions linked to Iran, with reports pointing to gambling-linked flows and alleged access to Iran’s payment infrastructure. Markets & Energy: Investors digested fresh Iran-Hormuz conditions as Trump said the US is “semi-negotiating” while Tehran demands sanctions relief, force withdrawal and asset unfreezing; oil and equities swung on the uncertainty. Banking & Payments: Nayax posted 2Q results with revenue up 28% to $123m and highlighted plans for embedded financial services, including an in-house issuing push and a US bank charter application. Corporate Finance: Bank of Commerce (Philippines) reported 1H profit up 13% on core lending and FX gains; Conduent flagged progress on its transformation and portfolio sales. Regional Finance & Development: World Bank approved a $100m grant to modernise Syria’s financial sector; Egypt signaled interest in industrial investment ties with Bangladesh. Security & Geopolitics: Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan signed the Mecca mutual defence pact, while Gaza talks remain strained as Israel rejects Trump’s sequencing plan. Logistics & Trade: Jordan’s port performance (Aqaba turnaround ~0.6 days) supports its push to be a regional logistics hub amid supply-chain stress.

Qatar-Egypt Investment Push: Qatari Diar officially launched Phase 1 of the $29.7bn Alam Al Roum mixed-use coastal project on Egypt’s North Coast, with $3.5bn in direct cash investment and first phase handover targeted for 2030—positioning it as a tourism and urban-sustainability engine, not just real estate. Gaza Peace Roadmap Clash: Israel’s Netanyahu rejected Trump’s 15-point Gaza plan, saying troops won’t withdraw until Hamas is fully disarmed, while Egypt urged all parties to honor the roadmap and keep humanitarian access and stabilization force plans on track. Iran “Low-Key” Pressure Strategy: Trump signaled a wait-and-see approach toward Iran—“low keying it” with economic pressure rather than new strikes—while Iran reiterated strict conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, keeping energy markets tense. Hormuz Shipping Uncertainty: Reuters noted Hormuz traffic remains far below normal as Iran and Oman near a corridor arrangement but Tehran still demands sanctions relief, asset releases, and compensation. Arab AI Sovereignty Call: An Arab forum in Tangier backed an Arab-African AI model and proposed a sovereign center for investments, data and AI to support entrepreneurship and smarter cities. Kuwait Agriculture Investment Plan: Kuwait’s government flagged a sharp drop in agricultural investment and outlined reforms to attract capital and boost local know-how, including hydroponics and vertical farming. Korek Telecom Regulatory Fight (Iraq): Korek Telecom challenged Iraq’s communications regulator over a suspension order, arguing the commission lacks authority to cancel a prior settlement. Tourism Connectivity (Kuwait-Egypt): Jazeera Airways added flights to Egypt, bringing direct weekly services from Kuwait to 126 and expanding routes to Sharm El Sheikh, Alexandria, Sohag and Hurghada. Saudi Tourism Growth Signal: WTTC said Saudi travel and tourism is 14.1% of GDP and expects the region to be the fastest-growing tourism market through 2036.